The coordinator of the Studies Office Paolo Zabeo: “With less money in our pockets, more unemployed and many activities that by the end of the year will definitively close their doors, we risk that the very serious economic difficulty we are experiencing at the moment will lead to a dangerous social crisis”.

Due to Covid,this year every Italian will lose on average almost 2,500 euros (precisely 2,484), with peaks of 3,456 euros in Florence, 3,603 in Bologna, 3,645 in Modena, 4,058 in Bolzano and even 5,575 euros in Milan. To estimate the contraction of the added value per inhabitant at the provincial level, the CGIA Studies Office has thought of it, which, moreover, has denounced another particularly alarming figure: even if it will suffer a more contained reduction in GDP than all the other macro areas of the country (- 9 percent), the South will see GDP slip to the same level as in 1989. In terms of wealth, therefore, it will “recede” by as much as 31 years. On a regional basis, Molise, Campania and Calabria will return to the same level of real GDP achieved in 1988 (32 years ago) and Sicily no less than that of 1986 (34 years ago).

The mestrini artisans are keen to point out that the data that emerged in this elaboration are certainly underestimated. Updated to 13 October last, they do not take into account the negative economic effects that will derive from the latest Prime Ministerial Decree that have been introduced in the last two weeks. They also specify that in this elaboration the forecast of the fall in national GDP should reach 10 percent this year, almost one point more than the forecasts communicated last month by the Government through the NADEF (Update Note of the Economic and Financial Document). The

concern, underlines the CGIA, concerns the employment stability. If the number of unemployed is likely to increase in the coming months, the social stability of the country would be at great risk. Thanks to the introduction of the freeze on layoffs, this year the employed will fall by about 500 thousand units. A certainly negative figure, but it would have been even more so if the aforementioned measure had not been introduced by the Government last March.

In percentage terms, the South will always be the geographical distribution of the country to suffer the most marked contraction (-2.9 percent equal to -180,700 employees). Sicily (- 2.9 percent), Valle d’Aosta (-3.3 percent), Campania (- 3.5 percent) and Calabria (-5.1 percent), on the other hand, will be the most “affected” regions. Among all the 20 regions monitored by the CGIA Studies Office, only Friuli Venezia Giulia, on the other hand, would seem to record a positive variation (+0.2 percent), equal, in absolute terms, to +800 units. A result, the latter, which, however, in recent weeks has worsened considerably. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that even in this region the final figure may become negative.